Seems reasonable to expect that corporate earnings are likely to fall on account of inflation-induced weaker profitability and a slowdown in revenue growth. The growth-stall is likely to stem in part from the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame that margin-crushing inflation, as the Fed directly intends to provoke a slowdown in macroeconomic activity, perhaps even […]
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Many trends suggest progress has been made against inflation, which remains historically elevated across most of the globe. And though mixed in their estimates for how quickly and to what level inflation will fall, survey- and market-based measures for future inflation reflect expectations for a return to more comfortable levels of price change. While we […]
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The third quarter offered few corners to hide as investors shunned risk in most of its forms, with U.S. bonds seeing declines of historic proportions as stocks fell anew upon reemergent fears of a potential recession caused by efforts to combat long-lasting inflation. U.S. stocks continued to outperform non-U.S. stocks, with the strength of the […]
We were having such a good time, weren’t we? After dropping more than 20% from the beginning of the year through mid-June, the market staged a convincing rebound as investors seemingly saw fit to look beyond the complexities of central bank policy, maybe trusting that inflationary forces could be weakened and might otherwise work themselves […]
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With savings, every little bit counts. In our view, one should focus on regular contributions to investment portfolios to build an asset base, in turn allowing investment gains to compound over time and further bolster accumulated assets. In addition to the notion that even small amounts of savings, when invested according to a disciplined strategy, […]
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Though stocks showed some early-April gains, they sank through quarter end to close near the lows for the current drawdown. Though non-U.S. stocks performed a bit better than domestic equities during the quarter, investors saw red across the board as they pondered the consequences of a global interest rate hiking cycle meant to target inflation […]
Unlike market peaks, when positive sentiment easily supports staying in the game, a market drawdown leads many to question portfolio exposure to equity. Fears of further downside to come not only leave many hesitant to retain an existing strategy; they can push some to throw in the towel altogether. In squishier times like these, when […]
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Investment hypotheticals are imaginary scenarios of portfolio returns. They are summaries of theoretical past or future circumstances that can serve as powerful tools for instruction. We think they can be particularly effective when the goal is as much to convey how investment math works as it is to convey the results of that math. We […]
Only once before in the history of the U.S. fixed income market have investment-grade bonds suffered as steep a decline as their current drawdown. The consequence of the impending reversal of stupendously accommodative, COVID-focused monetary policy, rates have risen from historical depths to put them likely within striking distance of what might be appropriate for […]
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Stocks sank early this year on a wide range of macroeconomic concerns. Following a minor drop at the start of the war in Ukraine, global equities rebounded sharply. Since last summer, though, bonds have heavily sagged as monetary policy makers targeted inflation. Though stocks were broadly weak in the quarter, less-expensive names (Value stocks) strongly […]
