As markets roil, it’s increasingly evident that the eventual depth of this downturn will depend on the breadth and duration of the dual contagions now spreading across the globe: the coronavirus outbreak and the oil price war. With the actual disease threatening human life and macroeconomic growth, potential duress in the energy sector threatens to jump from oil companies into the financial sector and beyond. Headlong into the market plunge, we sought some perspective—and even some reassurance—from history. Though we find a wide range of durations for past market drawdowns, just as obvious from the data is the fact that, in its having reached another peak just a few weeks ago, the equity market eventually recovered from every prior drawdown.
Download PDF: 20200311 SAM Market Update