Investment hypotheticals are imaginary scenarios of portfolio returns. They are summaries of theoretical past or future circumstances that can serve as powerful tools for instruction. We think they can be particularly effective when the goal is as much to convey how investment math works as it is to convey the results of that math. We […]
Only once before in the history of the U.S. fixed income market have investment-grade bonds suffered as steep a decline as their current drawdown. The consequence of the impending reversal of stupendously accommodative, COVID-focused monetary policy, rates have risen from historical depths to put them likely within striking distance of what might be appropriate for […]
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Stocks sank early this year on a wide range of macroeconomic concerns. Following a minor drop at the start of the war in Ukraine, global equities rebounded sharply. Since last summer, though, bonds have heavily sagged as monetary policy makers targeted inflation. Though stocks were broadly weak in the quarter, less-expensive names (Value stocks) strongly […]
Given the unpredictability of investment markets and corporate fundamentals, we tend to pay minor heed to generally unreliable guesswork about the future, instead emphasizing the facts of market history. Analyst estimates for corporate earnings provide a fine example of a dataset that one otherwise might think would be usable, driven as it is by crowd-sourced […]
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One correctly could suggest the world entered a darker phase over the past week. One also correctly could observe that the skies have proceeded to darken since the dawn of the post-Soviet era. The breadth of those two observations reflects a proper range of thinking regarding geopolitical risk and investment management. Though the thrum of […]
It’s rare that market action provides such clarity of purpose to our recommendations that investors maintain a long-term orientation with investment plans, even as they regularly revisit their tolerance for market risk. After Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine in their early morning hours today, international markets opened to significant losses. Domestic stocks opened down […]
The world has been left bereft of “safe” yield for a decade. And over that time, savers have been required to adjust their perspectives regarding what’s possible in terms of income generation from a portfolio. That thinking has led many to pursue yield from dividend stocks, rather than bonds, as a means to bolster income. […]
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This latest update to our investment models includes the following themes: Across all models we have sought to lower the duration “cap” incorporated into our fixed income allocations while maintaining the flexibility to access additional yield through exposure to credit Within the equity component of our models, as a consequence of more recent differentials in […]
All but ignoring the global pandemic, for the third year in a row global stocks saw a double-digit gain, once again powered by U.S. stocks. After two years of high single-digit gains, though, the domestic investment-grade bond market turned in a loss. After a close first half, domestic equities powered away from their global peers. […]
While it’s true that we fancy smaller, less-expensive and more profitable companies, those preferences have not been shared among the bulk of investors over the past decade. With relative performance as testament to that fact, investors have been rather more interested in pulling forward the longer-term potential of growthier names. But history generally has been […]
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