The third quarter was tense in manners similar to the thrilling, but otherwise inconsequential subplots forced into the hurtling-toward-a-super-bad-outcome narrative of a typical disaster movie. This year’s trade scrap is just one round of many past and likely future struggles that the U.S. will experience as it seeks to come to terms with an ever-surging China. It seems obvious from the market data that investors have eyed the contest closely. But global growth was slowing anyway. As nations seek to deal with a range of long-term growth-sapping pressures, the third quarter presented a fresh reminder to stay observant of the underlying plot, even as exciting side stories may draw attention elsewhere. In the same way, we wish to remind readers that the “plot” on which to focus when it comes to investing revolves around short- and long-term financial goals. Best to leave the otherwise weakly relevant subplots on the cutting room floor.

Download PDF: Q319 SAM Market Review

Seems like each day brings a new call that a recession is right around the corner. Or, if not right around the corner, somewhere in the nearer-term future. If not so soon, then likely at some point over the next few years. Or perhaps later. Of course, one of those statements must be true. As always, the timing of that recession is up to the universe to decide. And where timing is considered, we generally caution against shifting target portfolio exposures in light of any “pending” recession. We find the most defensible approach is one that sticks to target allocation that accommodates comfort with the potential market-related ramifications of macroeconomic downturns, while remaining focused on longer-term plans.

Download PDF: 1019 SAM Commentary

Normally we’re not big fans of the phrase, as it’s often used reflexively rather than with specific intent. On the contrary, we reference relativity often and with specific intent. For example, we regularly remind readers that expectations for greater relative return should be accompanied by expectations for greater risk. This month, we offer perspective on the historical relative returns of a range of mixtures of equity and fixed income using the benchmarks we utilize for our portfolios as the basis for comparisons. The goal of the review is to further support the process of defining client comfort with exposure to market risk and to provide a means to establish reasonable expectations for short- and long-term outcomes.

Download PDF: 0919 SAM Commentary

Wasn’t so long ago that we were applauding more generous yields among our fixed income exposures for the greater income over the longer term that they may provide. This despite the nearer term drag from the impact that rising rates had on bond prices, the movement of the latter being inverse to that of the former. So much for all that. A conspiracy of waning global growth, declining inflation expectations, rising geo-trade tensions and rather more perilous political turns of tone have seen interest rates near world-round sink on growing pessimism and uncertainty. Investors should be careful, we think, to respond by creeping up the risk curve, as bangs-for-buck remain historically weak among most of the riskier income-focused investment.

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Yet another quarter has gone by during which, were it not for the actions—or, rather more appropriately, expectations of forthcoming actions—by the Federal Reserve, equity markets otherwise might have turned in a rather more sober tally. With earnings growth waning against a backdrop of elevated valuations, perhaps too much hope rests on a nearer-term future over which the Fed may be able to exert only modest influence. As we wonder which wags which, tail or dog, we remain focused on providing broad means for investors to work with advisors to address any shift in tolerance for the elevated risk and uncertainty of it all.

Download PDF: Q219 SAM Market Review

In last month’s commentary, we sought to support our desire to maintain international equity exposures with an argument in favor of the greater diversification they may provide. This month we want to offer a bit of a boost to the idea using a review that should be familiar. The rather subdued relative performance of international equities has left their valuations generally lower, versus their own historical levels and relative to the U.S. market. While those gaps do not suggest immediate reward is due, in our view they bolster the idea that a portfolio inclusive of global stocks may find relative favor over the longer-term.

Download PDF: 0719 SAM Commentary

Humans can be faulted for behaviors of all sorts, and our penchants when investing are not immune to such criticism. One of the more powerful biases is our tendency to see the recent past as a fuller record than it is. As went the past few years, so must have been the past few decades, no? Not invariably, perhaps not even often so. The outperformance of the U.S. equity market seems to have many regretting international stock exposure. We find such thinking faulty both for the potential additional diversification a global portfolio presents, as well as what we may expect to prove more rewarding potential longer-term return.

Download PDF: 0619 SAM Commentary

Our industry spends a great deal of time thinking about where a portfolio is invested and how those investments perform over time. Perhaps not enough time is spent discussing the force we think most impactful with regard to meeting long-term financial goals: savings. After all, without savings, there’s no portfolio. And no manner of fanciful investment scenario can save a financial plan that focuses too little on dollars put away for far-in-the-future spending.

Download PDF: 0519 SAM Commentary

The first quarter of 2019 provided yet another example of why we think it generally is a good idea to be disciplined in our investment decisions through market tumult. Such discipline should include not only retaining investment exposures when the going gets rough. It, too, should include a thoughtful approach to portfolio rebalancing according to previously established long-term plans. Pushing our own wares here, of course, but we think being able to turn to a coach that is mindful of the sorts of mental challenges market volatility can present can make all the difference when it comes to finding long-term investment success.

Download PDF: Q119 SAM Market Review

We continue to believe that, based on our experience and that of the broader industry, a focus on individual stocks and the stories they present at best has a neutral effect on portfolio performance, relative to the market in general. Stock picking, in our view, may even lead to worse-than-optimal outcomes for investors. Far more powerful, we think, is a focus on types of stocks. That is, we seek to establish favorable investment prospects based on commonalities across stocks, rather than the idiosyncrasies of each. Such statements often lead to a bit of head-scratching, so we thought we’d dive a bit deeper in this month’s commentary.

Download PDF: 0419 SAM Commentary