International stocks have strongly underperformed U.S. stocks this year. Such a large gap may lead many to questioning the value of owning stocks outside the U.S. As part of our investment approach, we see the inclusion of international equities as a natural extension of the diversification we pursue in all our portfolio exposures. Indeed, we see diversification across a range of historical periods as having allowed stronger performance among particular segments of the equity universe to offset weaker returns from others. The range of differences in performance and shifts in ranks among the segments over time may surprise some readers. That surprise is chief among the rationale for our pursuit of diversity.

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For the second time this year, the S&P 500 Index has experienced a near 10% dive from its short-term peak. As those short-term peaks were also all-time peaks, the plunges have generated an extra amount of drama in regard to their meanings. A range of obvious pressures remain: healthy-at-the-present but unknown future macroeconomic performance against a backdrop of growing global trade burdens, local- and geo-political angst and historically stretched domestic stock valuations. And we can point to those troubles as rationale for recent market throes. But, we believe still generally healthy global macroeconomic growth, steady-handed global central bank policy efforts and reasonably good corporate fundamentals should prove more informative in regard to medium-term market movements.

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Thinking about the past three months, the word divergence comes to mind. Within equities, U.S. stocks continued to pull away from global peers as the U.S. economy furthered similar feats of distinction. Beginning later in the quarter and hastening in the current one, the domestic bond market sank anew, representing for many a departure from the conventional view of bonds as a source of relative safety. Despite the scale of these near- and medium-term shifts, we continue to believe that most portfolios may benefit from the additional diversification global equity exposures provide. And while the rising-rate environment may continue to weight bond returns in the nearer term, we remain confident in the belief that fixed income may provide appropriate portfolio ballast for those wishing to dampen equity-driven volatility.

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A fact of investing, bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise. This happens as holders of existing bonds sporting lower yields (which is the coupon paid divided by the price of the bond) sell them in favor of newly issued bonds carrying now higher going-forward yields. As the prices of older bonds fall, their yields rise. Initiated more than two years ago, a generally sustained upward shift in interest rates has pressured the broader bond market. But, those rate rises have left going-forward yields on fixed income investments materially higher. Further, continued strength in the broader economy has lifted equities, potentially offsetting drops in the fixed income side of portfolios exposed to both major asset classes.

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Lots of folks talking about how long-in-the-tooth is this bull market. Some conclude the end is near. Others see room to run. Regular readers hopefully can guess what we think. Regardless how one determines bull markets, neither its eventual length, nor the length and depth of the drawdown that succeeds it are determinable in advance. Calling a bull-run “old” gives it an unwarranted sell-by date. Implying there’s great room to run similarly disregards market unpredictability. Bull-market variables like duration and magnitude do not have natural ranges. Cyclical bull/bear outcomes are further examples of market randomness. Suggesting otherwise serves little good in assisting clients in their pursuit of financial goals.

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Fairly common to hear folks gabbing about how great a stock they own has performed. Common, too, having missed out on the run to the peak, the schadenfreude of those who avoided the downfall of former big winners. A recent example, we all might like to have seen our individual portfolios achieve gains like the shares in Facebook have seen since the company’s IPO in 2012. But, with this latest swoon yet another example, there’s been more than a bit of drama in the course the shares took to arrive at their current level. We think that’s true for all individual stocks and find that portfolio diversification in all its forms, while offering no guarantees, helps to avoid such duress.

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The second quarter proved mostly unexceptional. Sure, we could point to headlines and such, intimating at some connection between how markets reacted and reflecting on the performance of our models amidst those reactions. But, as we often note, such comments would be more conjecture than conviction. Besides, there really wasn’t much in the way of highlights (aside from one we’ll soon review). Although market volatility has risen, we might concede that markets are beginning to “work” in a manner more like that expressed in their pre-Financial Crisis past, a welcome return to ordinary.

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We attempt as often as we can to resolve many of the mysteries surrounding investment management and our version of it. Not always an easy task, as popular culture has left many with impressions far removed from the normal day-to-day activities that comprise our work. Rare is the frantic emotion suggested by cable financial news. Even rarer is agitated activity. By design, our work focuses on the client, who in our view generally doesn’t benefit from any such bustle. Rather, our approach is founded on the idea that the client is best served when investing is approached with calmer hands and longer-term goals in mind.

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With the large-cap-stock focused S&P 500 Index now up 4.8% year-to-date, after its 21.8% jump in 2017 and its rarely interrupted run since the depths of the Great Recession, admonitions regarding the unsustainability of domestic equity market valuations are growing in number and volume. While we cannot argue statements of fact—that the immense gains have left U.S. markets nearly without precedent in regard to valuation—we can argue the implications. Certainly, there is meaning in stock valuations, and a present reading set against investment theory suggests future equity market returns may fall short of historical norms. Even so, the nature of market history suggests even more strongly that no metric, valuation-based or otherwise, can foretell future market movement. We thus continue to believe the best approach to managing exposure to market risk is one that focuses more on levels of market exposure appropriate for individual investment situations, rather than one that seeks to foretell and act in advance of market shifts.

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Fundamental to our approach to investment management is the acknowledgement that with most any increase in expected return, we also must expect an increase in risk. It is the balance between the two that we seek to match with client financial situations and goals. To help find that appropriate balance, we often turn to historical market data, which provide ample evidence for this simple rule. While we can’t be sure what the future will hold, we at least may seek to set proper expectations for what we might encounter. Such preparation we find goes a long way in supporting our endurance against whatever storms we may face and fostering our benefit from whatever good fortune markets may bring.

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