Never ceases to amaze us the ways financial market media will torture market data in order to come up with fresh content. Suppose that’s the beauty of data...always another way to look at them. We caution folks not to find too much meaning in all the slicing and dicing of near-term market moves. It’s meant to glamorize and mesmerize, not necessarily to provide you with useful insight. That’s not to suggest market data can’t be of great use. More valuable insight, though, can come from reviews of the rich history of information investible markets have generated, not the last few moments of market time.

Download PDF: 0319 SAM Commentary

We generally seek to provide in-depth reviews of themes supporting our approach to investment management each month on these pages. We understand, though, that a brief overview sometimes can prove an effective refresher of the fundamental tenets of our work. This month, we will revisit a range of those themes in a “frequently asked questions” format.

Download PDF: 0219 SAM Commentary

For the first time in a decade, the S&P 500 Index posted a calendar year loss. Meantime, the domestic investment-grade fixed income market barely managed to turn positive for the year, the primary savior likely having been a flight to safety wrought by the equity market’s decline. The recent, rather sharp rebound in equities has […]

For the first time in a decade, the S&P 500 Index posted a calendar year loss. Meantime, the domestic investment-grade fixed income market barely managed to turn positive for the year, the primary savior likely having been a flight to safety wrought by the equity market’s decline. The recent, rather sharp rebound in equities has us thinking investors found the selloff overdone. Still, we’d hesitate to offer the all’s clear. But, while we do find a range of reasons for going-forward caution, neither further volatility, nor a reasonably positive gain for 2019 will surprise us.

Download PDF: Q418 SAM Market Review

For the past two years, we’ve made a point to highlight the natural ebbs and flows of global investible markets. A major part of the rationale was that over the past couple of years markets have been much less ebby and flowy than history suggests is possible...normal. Acknowledging that market-related headlines have turned qualitatively ugly over the past few months, we wanted to attempt to pull perspectives into the future. Before the latest ills, with time global equity markets always have recovered from whatever near- and medium-term chill they caught. While investors should regularly gauge their tolerance for medium-term drawdowns, they may find some solace in the understanding that the years ahead may still prove gainful.

Download PDF: 0119 SAM Commentary

Usually not so many at once. While international equity markets have been pressured most of the year, U.S. equities are sharply lower since the end of September. While it’s generally usually more than a bit of a guessing game establishing causes for such shifts in market performance, we think the sudden severity of the recent decline left us thinking that such a review was worth exploring.

Download PDF: 122118 SAM Market Update

International stocks have strongly underperformed U.S. stocks this year. Such a large gap may lead many to questioning the value of owning stocks outside the U.S. As part of our investment approach, we see the inclusion of international equities as a natural extension of the diversification we pursue in all our portfolio exposures. Indeed, we see diversification across a range of historical periods as having allowed stronger performance among particular segments of the equity universe to offset weaker returns from others. The range of differences in performance and shifts in ranks among the segments over time may surprise some readers. That surprise is chief among the rationale for our pursuit of diversity.

Download PDF: 1218 SAM Commentary

For the second time this year, the S&P 500 Index has experienced a near 10% dive from its short-term peak. As those short-term peaks were also all-time peaks, the plunges have generated an extra amount of drama in regard to their meanings. A range of obvious pressures remain: healthy-at-the-present but unknown future macroeconomic performance against a backdrop of growing global trade burdens, local- and geo-political angst and historically stretched domestic stock valuations. And we can point to those troubles as rationale for recent market throes. But, we believe still generally healthy global macroeconomic growth, steady-handed global central bank policy efforts and reasonably good corporate fundamentals should prove more informative in regard to medium-term market movements.

Download PDF: 1118 SAM Commentary

Thinking about the past three months, the word divergence comes to mind. Within equities, U.S. stocks continued to pull away from global peers as the U.S. economy furthered similar feats of distinction. Beginning later in the quarter and hastening in the current one, the domestic bond market sank anew, representing for many a departure from the conventional view of bonds as a source of relative safety. Despite the scale of these near- and medium-term shifts, we continue to believe that most portfolios may benefit from the additional diversification global equity exposures provide. And while the rising-rate environment may continue to weight bond returns in the nearer term, we remain confident in the belief that fixed income may provide appropriate portfolio ballast for those wishing to dampen equity-driven volatility.

Download PDF: Q318 SAM Market Review

A fact of investing, bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise. This happens as holders of existing bonds sporting lower yields (which is the coupon paid divided by the price of the bond) sell them in favor of newly issued bonds carrying now higher going-forward yields. As the prices of older bonds fall, their yields rise. Initiated more than two years ago, a generally sustained upward shift in interest rates has pressured the broader bond market. But, those rate rises have left going-forward yields on fixed income investments materially higher. Further, continued strength in the broader economy has lifted equities, potentially offsetting drops in the fixed income side of portfolios exposed to both major asset classes.

Download PDF: 1018 SAM Commentary